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The Copenhagen Accord

As was being expected in the last few days of the COP, we do not have a "fair, ambitious and binding deal" in place. What we have is an agreement which is neither fair nor binding. It is being called the "Copenhagen Accord".

"We underline that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. We emphasise our strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities." Though the accord boldly talks about the adverse impacts of climate change and claims to sympathize with the vulnerable regions, it's mostly talk at the end of the day.

"We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity building to support the implementation of adaptation actions in developing countries." This is a great acknowledgement but $30 bn till 2012 and $100 bn till 2020 with no clue of where this money will come from and no agreement on how it will be distributed is not substantive at all.

"Annex I Parties to the Convention commit to reducing their emissions individually or jointly by at least 80 percent by 2050. They also commit to implement individually or jointly, the quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 as listed in appendix 1, yielding in aggregate reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of X percent in 2020 compared to 1990 and Y percent in 2020 compared to 2005." This is probably the best statement in the accord, given the amount of flexibility it provides. A heart-rendering display of sympathy towards the small island states and least developing countries!

"We call for a review of this Accord and its implementation to be completed by 2016, including in light of the Convention's ultimate objective. This review would include consideration of strengthening the long term goal to limit the increase in global average temperature of 1.5 degrees" Yes, we need to agree on something that's urgent, in 2016! We are working on 2 degrees as of now and have put 1.5 as part of a long-term goal!

Where are we heading?

It's been more than a week since the negotiations started and the progress seems to have slowed down drastically. The developed countries want to chuck out the Kyoto Protocol whereas the developing countries, particularly the small island states are pushing hard for binding commitments. Tuvalo's climate negotiator gave a very emotional speech in the plenary on Saturday, and parallelly, a massive rally wash held outside the Bella centre where about 100,000 activists participated. The vigil called for a fair binding deal where the leaders should promise to stick by 350 ppm.

Inside the Bella Center, the security has tightened and fewer and fewer people are going to be allowed inside in the next few days. The youth are planning to use the space outside for actions and rallies. It's freezing cold in Copenhagen and as I watch the opening ceremony for the Heads of States (who have arrived over the weekend), it's make me question how millions of dollars are being spent every year to hold conferences, which do not result in any concrete decisions. From the Earth Summit in 1992 to COP15, we haven't come much far and still, we haven't seem to learn anything.

I interviewed a climate change champion yesterday who strengthened my faith in the cause of climate change and it's people like these who keep the hope alive.

Win it at Oslo, Earn it at COP15!

As I was entered the Bella Center (Venue of COP15) today, I noticed a small poster saying "Obama - Win it at Oslo, Earn it at COP15!" This simple and elegant message sends across a variety of signals. We all have read the controversial stories which were floating around, when Barrack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Though we can argue over his win for days, the point is that now is the time to show step up and get a FAB (fair, ambitious and binding) deal in Copenhagen.

As the negotiations move forward at an extremely slow pace in COP15, the ministerial talks have already begun and most heads of states have arrived. Next week is going to be very crucial in terms of decisions on KP (Kyoto Protocol), Finance (Funds for the developing countries to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change) and other issues. On one hand, the AOSIS (Alliance of Small Islands States), for whom survival is at stake, are pushing for legally binding commitments and on the other side, the developed countries (particularly Australia and Canada and ofcourse, the US) want to do away with KP.

The G77+China group (a loose coalition of 130 developing nations) has had internal issues this week and there have been rumours of a split between the BASIC countries (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) and the remaining members. With the first week coming to an end, the Bella Center has become a hotbed of politics and media, NGOs and the youth are trying to understand to figure out the dynamics of who's dating whom!

As everyone awaits the visit of Obama on December 18th in Copenhagen, we are hoping that countries would be able to come to a fair deal by then and that the President of the United States would do justice to the climate, the Nobel, the people who elected him and the world!

What's happening at Copenhagen?

I arrived in Copenhagen on Sunday evening and the ride from the airport to my camp (mini-dorm like houses) was not that painful. Though I was expecting temperatures to be sub zero, it wasn't that cold and I am used to living in temp. around 1 degree centigrade in the winters. It does get that cold in north India in the winters!

Monday morning was exciting as I had been waiting for the conference for a few months now. COP15 is being hosted at the Bella Center, which is a like a small township guarded from all sides, with all facilities - food, internet and everything else you need. In a nutshell, it is a modern fortress! You can borrow laptops, bikes and get free coffee too :)

If you get here early in the morning and can get inside early for the registration, you are very lucky or else you will need to wait in a long queue for hours to get registered (though the registration process itself is very short). The first hall on the entrance is a large exhibit area where non-profits, youth organizations, research institutes and universities showcase their work. Green Peace, Awaaz, Stanford, Yale, UN - everyone has a stall here!

There are innumerous desks and connections to work inside the Bella Center and wifi speed is pretty good. Besides the daily plenary sessions, there are a plethora of side-events and youth actions that go on all day in various places inside the venue. Often, you end up spending most of the time searching for rooms and halls until you have got very familiar with the Center. Some events are also being held at other venues in the city.

As far as the conference negotiations are concerned, though there are hopes of a climate deal, binding commitments are far from coming to reality. A danish text (proposal) was secretly released yesterday by the Guardian (UK news agency) which created a fury inside the plenary. Negotiators are saying that these are very early days of talks and only next week (when the head of states are scheduled to visit) will tell us what the conference will result in.

Will return soon will more updates!

Energy Intensity vs Carbon Intensity

When Jairam Ramesh said recently that India will make commitments of domestic voluntary cuts in energy intensity of 25 percent by 2020, the news caused a series of questions around energy and carbon intensity. Carbon intensity is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) whereas Energy intensity is the amount of energy used for each unit of GDP. India’s energy intensity has been on a declining trajectory, as befits a services-driven economy. From 0.12 kgoe (kg of oil equivalent) per dollar of GDP at purchasing power parity in 2003, its energy intensity has fallen to 0.09 kgoe.

Meanwhile, government officials and experts remain divided on whether India should focus on carbon intensity or energy intensity. Its current stance emphasizes the latter. Most people below the poverty line use biomass and wood as fuel, which is very energy inefficient, but its carbon dioxide emissions are very close to zero, as it (the fuel) is grown, cut and then grown again. But as they move to say kerosene, the energy efficiency will improve, but carbon intensity will worsen. Over long time frames, the two parameters are different. Energy efficiency, or the efficiency with which energy is generated, can affect a country’s energy intensity.

India needs to realize that sudden moves on targets may jeopardize its position domestically and globally. There needs to be a proper deliberative process, if India needs a carbon or energy intensity number. That has still not been done. India already has a commitment on energy intensity for the 11th Five-Year Plan. It must not make a laughing stock of itself by announcing new numbers everyday; it should stick to its own 20% by 2020 domestic commitment.

The first "Fred" Lecture

Ok, this isn't about something deep and substantive like Sarabjeet has been covering, as he prepares to go to Copenhagen. It was just Thanksgiving weekend here in the US, a family-focused time, so I'll put up something a little more family oriented.

I am the family historian of my generation and I am in the process of digitizing a ton of old photos (really old, most than 50 years old, and some more than 100 years old), newspaper

clippings, family letters, etc. I'm doing what I often do, hired someone in India to do it (see Scancafe). I spent a lot of time on this history, it's very escapist for me.

This image, one of the few of me as a kid (the hazard of being youngest in a big and older family), I've always liked. Anyone who knows me has observed the "Fred" lecture (either by presentation, email or even blog) which is a spiel on the "right" way to do something. Here I am at about age 8, giving a 4-H demonstration on how to test the germination of grain. How to do it the right way of course! Predating PowerPoint, or even PCs or email, but the bullet points are there!